Questions remain on just how much Iran’s nuclear program was set back, but the Trump strikes are gaining support, even as the President lost his cool and accused both Iran and Israel of not knowing what the f*** they’re doing. Our special guest this week is former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joel Rubin, who lends his expertise to assess where the conflict in Iran is heading, how it is playing out in Israel, and how domestic U.S. politics are being affected. Joel is also the author of The Briefing Book, on Substack!
“Israelis are unified in their contempt for two things, Bibi Netanyahu and Iran,” Joel tells us in assessing whether the strikes have given Netanyahu a political lifeline. “But they supported Netanyahu, they supported their troops…this is the paradox of Israeli society: Netanyahu’s base is in many ways the religious community, people in the settlements, people who are very much to the far right of society. And the national security community, the military operators, the intelligence professionals are generally secular, western leaning people who don’t like him…those are the people who just defeated Iran, physically. So you have this dynamic of Israel coming together.”
“Iran has been a bad actor…there should be a diplomatic way to lock this in and then move forward,” Joel added, reflecting on the fact that the strikes showed that Iran is on its own, and that it could not rally the network it cultivated for decades. We also discuss the shift in the Democratic Party, from an Obama-era focus on preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon, to a mindset that almost nothing justifies an attack that could trigger a broader war. Of course, the right has also faced a split with its MAGA base. It’s a thorough conversation worth listening to, and it’s why spaces like this on Substack are so important.
On the domestic politics side, the Trump Administration’s purge of the career federal workforce will only make it harder to carry out the diplomacy needed to manage this delicate moment with allies and enemies alike. That’s especially true as the State Department awaits another reduction in force that could cost as many as 3,000 public servants their jobs, further hampering America’s diplomatic might.
We also pivot to Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the Democratic primary for Mayor in the country’s largest city, and the seismic shift to the socialist left that it represents. We discuss whether Mamdani breathes new life into the battered re-election campaign of incumbent mayor Eric Adams.
Finally, we preview the Democratic firehouse primary in Virginia’s 11th congressional district, which is taking place this Saturday with 17 polling sites across the district. A candidate forum was held this week, and you’ll hear my hot take on who stood out, and who didn’t. Of course, regardless of who you support, if you live in Virginia’s 11th congressional district, we hope you’ll participate. Here’s the link to the candidate forum video, courtesy of WJLA, so you can judge for yourself: Click Here to Watch.
James Walkinshaw -was Congressman Gerry Connolly's Chief of Staff and is now the Chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. Connolly endorsed him before his death, but his popularity may not transfer over. Democrats are shunning candidates they perceive as anointed by an old and ineffective establishment, so the endorsement may even hurt Walkinshaw. He has name recognition, though, so he is easily the favorite – and he is as polished as a congressional candidate can get. A key thing to watch: when answering a question on Iran, and when pressed on Gaza, Walkinshaw sounded like a more traditional candidate that may not resonate with the type of Democratic Socialists that powered Mamdani in NY. This district is more balanced, but Walkinshaw's answers are likely to mobilize progressives to turn out against him.
Leo Martinez delivered a good performance. He spoke well about his experience fighting an autocratic regime in Venezuela (on the left) and having to flee political persecution with his family, and connected that to why it prepared him to take on the Trump Administration in Congress. He also talked about his experience in the federal government —- he served at the U.S. Department of Commerce — and in the private sector, which he used to tie in his ability to deliver on building economic opportunity. He also understands the immigration issue has to be talked about as an economic issue, which is lost in the daily coverage of raids.
Another strong candidate is Amy Roma, an attorney and internationally recognized expert on energy policy, Amy has spent her career at the intersection of law, energy, and national security and delivered credible responses about what she could do in office, while leveling with voters about what's possible. She stood out.
Amy Papanu, a 28 year career fed and former CIA Operations Officer also delivered a convincing pitch on how her experience is relevant to the moment.
If the two Amy's had any misstep, it’s that in some of their answers they seemed to suggest that Republicans in Congress or in the Administration would listen to experts like them. In normal times, sure, but Republicans are largely bowing down to the Trump Administration, even when it's destructive. But both Amy’s looked like strong candidates who know what they're doing and can stand up for the federal workforce in a district where that really matters.
Irene Shin, who currently serves in the Virginia House of Delegates, defined herself as the clear progressive candidate at this forum. If Zohran Mamdani's victory speaks to the broader party's dynamics and not just New York, Shin may well surprise people on Saturday -- but that could also turn out voters against her who are concerned about a far left tilt. I'm not sure VA-11 is far left enough for Shin, but she has defeated an incumbent before and certainly knows how to mobilize her voters.
Stella Pekarsky, a former educator and State Senator, delivered some good lines, but like Dan Lee, a former staffer at the White House, the World Bank, and for the Governor of Massachusetts who also focused on traditional kitchen table issues, did not stand out in the forum. Candice Bennett, and Dr. Priya Punnoose also participated at the forum.
Thank you for listening, and subscribing!
-Luis, Carl, and Jeremy
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